Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling

A comprehensive description of modelling in global and national economies, this book introduces a modelling approach that shows how economies work and how to generate forecasts. Illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy.

1. Introduction ; 2. Macroeconometric Modelling: Alternative Approaches ; 3. National and Global Structural Macroeconometric Modelling ; 4. An Economic Theory of the Long Run ; 5. An Economic Theory of the Short Run ; 6. Econometric Methods: A Review ; 7. Probability Forecasting: Concepts and Analysis ; 8. The UK Macroeconomy ; 9. A Long-Run Structural Model of the UK ; 10. Impulse Response and Trend/ Cycle Properties of the UK Model ; 11. Probability Event Forecasting with the UK Model ; 12. Global Modelling and Other Applications ; 13. Concluding Remarks ; Appendix A: Derivation of the Interest Rate Rule ; Appendix B: Invariance Properties of the Impulse Responses with respect to Monetary Policy Shocks ; Appendix C: Data for the UK Model ; Appendix D: Gauss Programs and Result Files